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THE ODDS OF TRUMP

REMAINING ON THE THRONE

USA Today

 

President Trump’s litany of improprieties, bravado, sexual behaviors, knee-jerk reactions, aggressive lashings out, generalist statements, lack of thought regarding cause and effect, spontaneous blurtings, vindictiveness, lack of general knowledge, low attention span, and continued inappropriate behaviors are just mind fogging.

    This does not bode well for our nation. A nation that has nuclear weapons and a nation that has set the world’s political, economic, and military stage for 60 plus years. Other nations hang on our words. What our leader says matters. The words from a president’s mouth need to be cautious, thought out and measured. Otherwise, instability can reign and neither people nor institutions thrive under those conditions.

    The United States of America has never been led by such a mercurial, impulsive whim and frightening persona before.

And it has had an effect. Only last week, the major betting houses of England had 2-to-1 odds on President Trump not lasting two years in his seat. The betting pros in England claim 90% of the bets are on Trump not making it for two years. Impeachment is one possibility but there are three ways that could make Mike Pence president. They are: Health, Wealth, and Stealth.

    Health – Our president is 70. He has basked in a life as an unchallenged business monarch. He barked at others to do as he demanded and they have done it. He is confident in his beliefs, no matter how false they are. He has historically answered to no board, no partner, no one. Now he is faced with compromise and lengthy thought-out negotiations that comprise the normal state of good governance. It is something he has no experience in and it will wear at him. That his doctor gave the USA a flattering yet bogus report on his health is disturbing. Many believe that without the large and continuous doses of adulation he finds necessary to function, his health may deteriorate rapidly.

    Wealth – President Trump’s many financial holdings, deals, and connections will only become more intertwined as his presidency continues. Even if he is entirely innocent of any fiscal misdoings, his financial roots are so widespread they will be connected to decisions he makes and, accordingly, fair game for many justifiable investigations. That his children supposedly run his businesses make little difference as they are now seated so close and involved in his cabinet. There is little separation. These tensions will allow for the constant threat of impeachment and be a further strain on his health.

     Stealth – A delicate topic. But one many people look over their shoulder and whisper. Trump has made enemies in virtually every part of America and every corner of the world. (OK, maybe not Russia.) He has insulted women, Mexicans, the disabled, a captured war hero, the media, the military, the state department, Muslims, African Americans, the list goes on and on and assuredly will grow.

    But most unwisely he has denigrated and defiled the intelligence services. More than denig-rating them, he has frightened them with a contemptuous arrogance and a continued general lack of knowledge. He keeps much and most praise for himself. It has been reported and, of course, denied that the intelligence services feel so uncomfortable with his amateur and cluelessness that they deny him access to information.

     It has never been wise in any society to threaten the essence of a societies’ security institutions. Most assuredly there are some who see President Trump as threat to the well-being and essence of democracy. And they wish Mr. Pence to immediately take that role. Indirectly these agencies will defy him (like with leaks). Directly … well, one never knows. I wouldn’t want to mess with any of those three lettered acronym agencies.

     Trump is an old man, far out of his depth, and he has willfully created lots of enemies. Even El Chapo, who is now on our side of the wall-to-be, said he’d get him.

     We have never been in this place before.

Health? Wealth? Or Stealth?

As for the “stealth” option, I in no way condone violence – but I merely and frightfully acknowledge the historic and current violent tendencies in USA.

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